Rising Approval For Obama’s Handling Of ISIS

[New Hampshire chart], ARG]

Louisiana Senate – A second PPP (D) poll gave Bill Cassidy (R) a 3-point advantage in a head-to-head matchup over Sen. That is not a typo: It has been eight months since Obama last cracked half the American public on any given issue — foreign policy or otherwise — in Washington Post/ABC News polling.

Economy remains main issue – CNN’s survey also finds that 65 percent of Americans consider economic conditions to be a bigger midterm issue than military action against ISIS. Rick Scott (R), his best margin since July. For the first time since January, President Obama is polling a 50 percent approval rating on an issue: his handling of the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria. In the end though, unlike with the probabilistic models of Senate control, we will know who was more and less right.” [The Hill]

SURVEY FINDS SURPRISINGLY STRONG RATING FOR OBAMA ON ISIS – Aaron Blake: “Get ready to pop the champagne, White House. [Michigan chart, Target-Insyght]

Ohio governor – A Wednesday morning Quinnipiac poll found Gov. [WashPost]

-Harry Enten says relatively little has changed since 538 launched its Senate forecast. SurveyUSA noted in their writeup that the poll was conducted during the Jewish High Holy Days, “which altered school schedules in some parts of the state and resulted in others taking long weekends away from home,” causing “volatility and [an] abnormal pattern of who is home and who is not home” that they expect to continue this week. But the poll also indicates most of Democrats’ gains are coming from the Northeast and not from the parts of the country where they’re locked in tight contests that could give Republicans control of the Senate. HuffPollster’s model gives Hagan a close to 4-point edge over Tillis and a nearly 60 percent chance of winning, making North Carolina the tossup state most likely to swing blue. Of the five polls released since August, just one — which was sponsored by the state Democratic party — found him taking more than 40 percent of the vote. Other surveys show a somewhat closer race, although they vary widely, with two GOP polls giving Brown a slight edge. A CNN/ORC poll released Monday found Americans divided on Obama’s handling of ISIS, with 45 percent approving and 49 percent disapproving — up from 37 percent approval on the issue earlier in September, although still somewhat south of a positive rating. The Pollster average gives him about a 4-point edge and a 65 percent shot at victory. found Gary Peters (D) up 10 points over Terri Lynn Land (R). Another finds a slight uptick for Democrats nationwide, but maybe not one that will help in November. [Louisiana chart, PPP]

-More small business owners feel satisfied in their jobs, but fewer feel successful. Kay Hagan (D) leading Thom Tillis (R) by 5 points, 46 percent to 41 percent, the eleventh survey in a row to show her ahead. [Iowa chart, PPP]

-Only 36 percent of Democratic candidates running this year have explicitly expressed support for Obamacare. House: “History suggests Democrats will lose House seats, and so does everyone else….Four things are clear for this run-down: First, no one yet knows just how many seats Democrats will lose in this very challenging environment. [Pollster chart]

One new survey suggests rising support for Obama’s handling of Islamic State militants. The survey also found Libertarian Sean Haugh’s support at just 4 percent, down from 10 percent in May and June Civitas polls. The Pollster average gives Shaheen a margin of just below 5 points, and about a two in three chance of winning. [WashPost]

-Americans think students should learn both to respect authority and about the history of civil disobedience. [Gallup]

-Hayley Munguia evaluates estimates of how many people participated in “the largest climate march in history.” [538]

-F.D. Republican wins in those states would add to a 53 seat majority, but the 59 percent probability of that occurring is barely better than a coin flip. That’s an improvement from August, when the question referenced only Iraq and not Syria, and 42 percent of Americans gave Obama a vote of confidence. Obama’s new polling heights come as Americans overwhelmingly approve of the airstrikes he ordered in Syria.” [WashPost]

-Philip Bump finds female candidates have bigger winning, and losing, margins than their male counterparts. [North Carolina chart, Civitas]

HUFFPOLLSTER VIA EMAIL! – You can receive this daily update every weekday morning via email! Just click here, enter your email address, and and click “sign up.” That’s all there is to it (and you can unsubscribe anytime).

-Ameila Showalter explains why redistricting, turnout and “the Big Sort” make 2014 a tough year for Democrats. Recent polls have painted sharply differing pictures of the race, with Fox, Rasmussen, and a Harstad (D) poll for the DSCC all showing the race tied, while Quinnipiac and a Selzer poll for the Des Moines register gave Ernst a 6-point lead. [Huffpost Senate Forecast]

CNN FINDS DEMS GAINING ON GENERIC BALLOT – Jeremy Diamond: “Five weeks before the November midterm elections, voters give Democrats an edge over Republicans, according to a CNN/ORC poll released Tuesday. Without Obama’s name mentioned, Republicans are close to unanimous in supporting intervention in Syria, with 80 percent agreeing, but just 30 percent give Obama a positive rating.

How do other polls compare? – The Post/ABC survey is the second released this week to show Obama’s rating on ISIS improving significantly. The Pollster average gives Ernst a 2-point edge and a just-better-than-even chance at winning. Flam profiles the field of Bayesian statistics. The newest WaPo-ABC poll shows 50 percent approve of Obama’s handling of the Islamic State, as compared to 44 percent who disapprove. Finally, with forecasts ranging from Democratic losses of two to 39 seats, this election sets up an interesting test of alternative approaches to forecasting. Other polling, released earlier this month, most found Obama’s rating on ISIS in the high 30s or early 40s, similar to his overall foreign policy rating. Our tracking model is based on all public polling data but is calibrated to the results of the more reliable non-partisan surveys. This is HuffPollster for Wednesday, October 1, 2014.

Michigan Senate – A Target-Insyght poll for the Michigan Information & Research Service and the lobbying firm Governmental Consultant Services Inc. The Democrats’ advantage is within the poll’s 3.5% margin of error.” The CNN result helps nudge the generic ballot estimate produced by the HuffPost Pollster back to a near tie. By the handicappers’ lights, Republicans are unlikely to achieve their goal; the modelers say it’s quite likely they will meet and even exceed their modest objective. And a third finds Charlie Crist up in Florida — for now. While Peters has led in 10 consecutive polls, most show a smaller margin, between 2 and 7 points. Third, for the most part, academic modelers foresee bigger changes than do the D.C.-based handicappers. [NYT, Bleeding Heartland]

2014-10-01-SenateTable1001b.png

HOW MANY SEATS WILL DEMOCRATS LOSE? – Mark Mellman (D) considers various forecasts for the outcome of races for the U.S. While majorities of both parties continued to name the economy, nearly three quarters of Democrats and two thirds of independents did, compared with just 55 percent in the GOP. [CNN, Pollster U.S. [538]

WEDNESDAY’S ‘OUTLIERS’ – Links to the best of news at the intersection of polling, politics and political data:. John Kasich (R) with a 22-point lead over Ed FitzGerald (D). Contests in four states currently represented by Democrats — Arkansas, Iowa, Alaska and Colorado — are currently tipping to Republicans by tiny margins (roughly 2 percent or less, as of this writing), margins that our model considers close to a 50/50 tossup. [YouGov]

Partisan gap – As Blake notes, support for airstrikes doesn’t necessarily translate into approval of the president. [WSJ]

-Nate Cohn checks in on early voting in Iowa; DesMoinesDem has more. In a generic ballot among likely voters, Democrats edged out Republicans 47 -45%, a 6-point swing from a CNN poll three weeks ago when likely voters favored the Republicans by a 4-point margin. No poll taken this year has shown FitzGerald ahead, but the Democrat’s numbers tanked further after his campaign was dogged with a series of unflattering revelations. The Pollster model shows the race virtually even.

[Florida chart, SUSA]

Iowa Senate – PPP (D) found a nearly tied race in Iowa, with Joni Ernst (R) just 2 points ahead of Bruce Braley (D). The Pollster model gives him a 6-point lead and a 70 percent chance of winning. [Ohio chart, Quinnipiac]

New Hampshire Senate – American Research Group gave Sen. Second, Democratic losses are likely to beat the historical average, making it hard for Republicans to claim real bragging rights. Jeanne Shaheen (D) a 10-point lead over Scott Brown (R), 53 percent to 43 percent — the highest percentage she’s seen all year, and among the best margins for her in recent polling. Mary Landrieu (D). Republicans were also most likely to say they disapproved of Congress’ handling of the situation with ISIS.

RECAPPING THE MOST RECENT MIDTERM POLLS – Tuesday’s new Senate polls produced an ironic twist: Two surveys from the Democratic firm Public Policy Polling (PPP) gave a slight edge to Republicans in Iowa and Louisiana, while a new poll from the conservative Civitas Institute favored the Democrat in North Carolina.The new data helps tick the probability of Republicans winning control of the Senate down slightly to 57 percent, from 58 percent Monday, but the overall assessment of the HuffPost Pollster tracking model remains essentially unchanged. [Medium]

Florida governor – The latest SurveyUSA tracking poll gave Charlie Crist (D) a 6-point edge over Gov. Most other recent surveys, including CNN, have Cassidy ahead by similar margins, although a Fox survey found him up 13 points. [NYT]

-Drew Altman notes fading interest in Obamacare as a political issue. House vote chart]

North Carolina Senate – The Republican Civitas Institute found Sen

Official Football Jerseys for Sale – Cheap Authentic Sports Apparel

There are places to buy bootleg jerseys at bargain basement places, but I wouldn’t recommend this. You can find knock offs online at places like ebay however. If you aren’t willing to make the investment to proudly support your team, what kind of fan are you anyways? Rocking a football jersey with an officially licensed patch is like a medal of honor only the most select fans have.

The sizes of football jerseys are a little tricky. They are sized by numbers. Football jerseys are made to have pads worn underneath them, so they will fit loose.

There are small sports memorabilia boutiques that offer official football jerseys and places like Dick’s Sporting Goods offer them too. In the case of the NFL an official jersey means the Nation Football League and the National Football League Players Association has signed off on it to be made. It also means they earn a royalty check for each jersey sold. It can be worth it though, because official jerseys are built nearly the same way a game jersey is built.

Buying Official Football Jerseys for Cheap


Why do you need an official football jersey?

They are crafted with stretchy material. So when your 4 year old toddler tries to plow through you at half time trying to emulate your favorite line backer that made a goal line stop as time expired, your official jersey will withstand the blow. If you wan an authentic jersey with all the stitched on numbers and name plate you can spend up to $200. Wearing the jersey of your favorite player on your favorite team is a prime time way to do just that. They actually where exactly like a football jersey so be ready for something that is a little bigger. Inside every fan is the desire to tell you exactly where their loyalties lay. And you won’t have to offend anyone with your over zealous declaration of allegiance. This might be your best bet. On top of the quality material, the name plate and numbers are stitched on. They cost a little more, but the prestige, honor and durability of wearing one make it worth it for the most loyal fans.

How much do they cost?

Expressing your fan hood is like proudly wrapping your arm around the woman you love. They don’t come in the traditional small, medium, large, and extra large. The craftsmanship is much better. You’re happy to do it and if anyone questions your dedication you’re quick to defend. The quality of the jerseys can’t be guaranteed and you never know where they are coming from.

Where can you buy them?

When a football jersey is called official it means it has been officially licensed by the player and organization it represents. The numbers of the jersey size usually range somewhere in the 40′s and low 50′s. An official football jersey shows you have no apprehension about going the extra mile and spending the extra dime to be the loyal fan you are.. You will probably want to to try one on before you make a purchase decision. A knock shows you’re a half way fan unwilling to go the extra mile for your team. The numbers and name plate won’t peel off when you wash it. If you are looking for something officially licensed, stick to places you recognize, and places that are trustworthy.

You need an official football jersey so people know who you support. You can always tell who the true fan is when you see that authentic jersey with stitched on numbers and name plate. Finding official football jerseys can be what puts your fan hood over the top. You will probably pay more than you would expect for an official football jersey, but you will be able to try them on.

The difference between an official football jersey and a knock off are simple. The jersey on your back does all the talking.

On average you can find an official football jersey for around $75.

What makes them official? Official Football Jerseys

If you want to represent yourself as the standout fan you are, get an official football jersey that is licensed and authentic.

Finding an official football jersey online can and will put the flag in the ground in regards to where your loyalties lay. If you want to represent your team and let everyone know it, throw your jersey on your back and cheer hard.

Official football jerseys for the nfl are sold at nfl.com and officially licensed retailers

Casino-Gaming :: Sportsbook Parlay Calculator – A great tool for your action.

Hope this will help you with your sportsbook bets and if you have any doubts all you need to do is visit the source. “The resulting wager will have the same risk amount with the win being calculated to reflect the odds of the remaining team (Example: On a two team $100 parlay with team A +110 and team B -110 if A ties and B wins the resulting wager will be a straight play on B risking $100 to win $91).”

But what is exactly a parlay? Well thats very simple, and according to Jazzsports Sportsbook “A parlay is a single bet that links together two or more individual wagers for a high payout. If you place a 2 team parlay and one team wins and one ties, the wager becomes a straight bet.”

2. A 2 team parlay might pay 13/5, a three team parlay might pay 6/1, a four team parlay might pay 10/1, and so on with the payouts getting higher with more teams.”. Type in the Parlay Calculator amount($) field the amount you wish to risk

1. Click the Parlay Calculator Calculate Button to obtain the result.. The sportsbook parlay calculator is a great and handy tool to be able to calculate your parlay bets and figure out how much you get paid, if you are luck enough to win them all.

If you are an sportsbook enthusiast yo know that parlay calculators are the best tools you have to try to beat one of the most common sportsbook bets, the ones that pays the most but also the ones that are hard to beat and win the cash you want for actually an small amount of money that you can bet on a single sportsbook parlay and can bring lots of cash into your account.

Now it is always important to have examples about this type of sportsbook bets, and as well you can find at Jazzsports all the answers you need, lets take a look at one example and some basic rules:

As an sportsbook fan you know that parlays are difficult bets, but if you get good at it you can real make some profit out of it, and if an sportsbook like Jazzsports gives you the tool to practice and become a great gambler this is the place you need to be. Enjoy the action!

Definitely the tools available for wagering are a great deal among the sportsbook industry to make sure you can use it wisely for you to know how much your bet will bring you back if you are lucky enough to get all the teams right, like for example, a 2 team parlay is a good bet, you can choose 2 winners easily, but if you have a 8 team parlay or some times more (if offered), will be hard to beat.

The calculator is easy to use, you can also check the information from Jazzsports Sportsbook where they have the information you need to get it right, but lets see what this is all about from the source:

How do I use the Sportsbook Parlay Calculator?

“For example, if you place a 5 team parlay and have 4 winners and a tie, your wager pays out as a 4 team parlay. Fill in the Parlay Calculator Prices Column, so at least 2 fields must be filled in with money lines prices (use only the money line of your picks, please include the + or – signs as well)

3. In order for the parlay bet to win, every one of the wagers must win.”, this company has the best sportsbook parlay payout calculator I’ve seen, and they actually answer a really good question – “So why make a parlay bet it’s a more difficult bet? Because the payouts are higher

Week 15 NFL Spreads: Match-ups To Beat the Sportsbook Scores and Odds

Bengals vs. Philadelphia is 7-0 after getting more than 250 yards passing last game. Also get NFL point spread match-ups and NFL trends to beat the sportsbooks.

Arizona is 7-21 on the road versus an opponent with a losing home record. The home team has covered eight straight meetings in this series.

Bears vs. Tennessee is 1-7 against teams with a winning record.

Patriots vs. Here is the rest of the card. 

Minnesota is 2-8 after allowing less than 250 total yards previous game.

Cowboys vs. St. Jets

. Redskins

Falcons vs. Saints

Miami is 7-19 after allowing less than 250 total yards previous game. Broncos

San Francisco is 8-1 as underdog. Lions

Houston is 1-6 after scoring 30 or more points. Rams

The Colts are already in as a win and cover making Grandmaster sports handicapper Joe Duffy 42-24 with NFL side selections. Pittsburgh is 1-11 as home favorites of three or less. The Birds have gone under 21-5 as home favorites of 3.5-10.

Green Bay is 13-3 after allowing less than 15 points in their last game. Detroit is 3-12 their last 15 at home. Denver has gone under 11-of-12 at home.

Texans vs. Buffalo is 2-9 at home.

Atlanta is 12-2 off a straight up loss.

Oakland is 7-22 after getting less than 250 total yards previous game. Seahawks

Browns vs. Louis is 3-15 after allowing 30 or more points last game.

Dallas is 9-1 after allowing more than 250 yards passing last game. Bills

Chicago is 0-7 as road underdogs. Washington is 2-9 after getting less than 250 total yards previous game.

Giants vs. Chiefs

Cardinals vs. Denver is 3-8 as double digit favorites. Chargers

Kansas City is 2-7 off an ATS loss.

Raiders vs. All records are against the spread.

New York is 1-7 their last eight overall. Steelers

Buccaneers vs. Ravens

Vikings vs. TheyâEUR(TM)ve gone over at a 49-22 rate at home.

Dolphins vs. New Orleans is 10-2 as favorite of 3.5-10.

New England is 38-18 after getting more than 350 total yards their previous game. Titans

49ers vs. Baltimore is 10-1 against teams with a losing record.

Cincinnati is 8-1 as an underdog.

Tampa Bay is 3-11 off a straight up loss.

For more information: NFL week 15 injuries will be updated along with the NFL weather Sunday morning. Panthers

Now itâEUR(TM)s time to check out week 15 NFL odds match-up information. Eagles

Packers vs

Drink Water for Your Body’s Health

If fluids that we take in do not replace water that is expelled, then we feel bad. Their recommendation is at least eight to ten 8-ounce cups per day.. 2 or 3 cups may be fine unless it is exceptionally warm. The 8 glasses a day model doesn’t take into account individual health, activity level or environmental conditions.

Water is the best bet for replacing the water you use, but many fruits and vegetables such as strawberries are high in water content. When the body runs low on water, a condition known as dehydration sets in to sap energy and make you tired. If you are paddling in your kayak for 3 hours or training for a marathon, though, you will probably need more, which varies depending upon how much you sweat. Drink more before, during and after exercise. Long sessions of intense exercise call for the addition of a sports drink that replaces sodium lost in sweat.

Thirst is like the emergency warning light that goes off to tell you that something is wrong. A few glasses of water could make us feel better in no time.

Replacement Theory

Hydration During Exercise

The theory assumes that the average adult’s urine output is 1.5 liters a day and that he or she loses another liter of water breathing, sweating and defecating. Second, you should be urinating one to two liters of colorless or slightly yellow urine a day.

While drinking too much water may be a concern for endurance athletes, the Mayo Clinic Web site states that, “drinking too much water is rare in healthy adults who consume an average American diet.” If you have concerns about the correct intake of water, consult your doctor to determine what is best for you.

Read more: Take Precautions Against Heat Exhaustion During Extreme Heat

Fluid can also be replaced at a rate of 16 ounces per pound of weight lost during exercise. First and foremost, you should drink enough so that you never feel thirsty.

As the body’s dominant chemical, H20 plays a part in every bodily system. Weigh yourself immediately before and after strenuous exercise to see how much weight you lost. If you wait until you are thirsty, it is too late and you are probably already heading to the couch to lie down because you have a headache, are tired, and feel lightheaded. It flushes out wastes and toxins. How bad we feel and whether or not dehydration becomes life-threatening depends upon how out of balance the outtake and input of fluid becomes.

When it’s hot – and even when it’s not – remember that you need to drink water even if you only plan to lounge by the pool. Dehydration can cause headaches, muscle weakness and lightheadedness. Since the human body is 60% water by weight, this logic should be as clear as a glass of the cold elixir itself.

A better way to tell whether you are drinking enough water is to pay attention to what your body is telling you. It is important to note that some diseases impair body fluid loss, so you may need to correct you calculation of replacement fluid intake.

We lose water when we breathe, sweat, urinate or have bowel movements. The 8-glasses rule was calculated based upon a replacement theory.

The Centers for Disease Control suggest that you get active, and that during your physical activity, whether it is walking, hiking, softball or any other sport, you drink plenty of water to replace the additional lost fluids. The Centers for Disease Control suggest that you drink a glass of water before you get moving, and drink another half cup every 15 minutes that you remain active.

Most of us have heard that 8 glasses of water a day is recommended to ensure balance, but 8 glasses may be too much for some and not enough for others. Additional water is lost with exercise or strenuous activity, and, when we’re sick, in vomiting and diarrhea. Since the water in food generally includes 20 percent (one-fifth) of total fluid intake, an adult must drink 2 liters of water or a little more than 8 cups a day. Water washes through organs to bring nutrients to cells and moisture to tissues.

The more you exercise, the more you need to keep the water coming. The Mayo Clinic says that an extra 1 or 2 cups of water a day should suffice if you walk or bike for an hour. Many of the aches and pains that we feel are often symptoms of dehydration. Even milk, juice, and beer contribute to your fluid intake total, but alcohol and caffeinated products cause water loss and should not be a major portion of your intake.

How the Body Uses Water

Water Replacements

Remember to bring water and rehydrate often!

Make it a routine to drink a glass of water with each meal and between meals